Strava segments are everywhere but the segment explorer doesn't tell you what time you should be aiming for. This tool combines your FTP, weight, the segment's profile, and conditions to predict your likely time — and shows where that lands you vs KOM, top-10%, and your personal best.
| Tier | Time | Δ vs you |
|---|
Tier times assume a local competitive field. KOM is the absolute fastest; top 10% is the 90th percentile of all attempts.
A good prediction matches your actual segment times within 5-10%. If it's off by more, the issue is usually one of three: (1) FTP is wrong, (2) the segment has technical features (hairpins, rough surface) that physics doesn't model, or (3) you paced it badly.
The biggest value of a prediction isn't the absolute time — it's the relative one. Knowing that a 5 km climb at 7% should take 16:30 means you know your 17:15 was a 5% off-day, not a normal ride. That's the part this tool emphasizes.
Plug it in and compare. If the prediction is within 5% of your PR, the model is calibrated for you. If it's off by 10%+, your FTP may have changed.
Climbs are physics-dominated (gravity is predictable). Flat segments depend more on rider-specific positioning, equipment and drafting, which the model can't see.
Partially. Steep segments lose more time on tight corners than on sweeping ones. Use the elevation profile for a more refined estimate.
This calculator was built to answer a question most online versions skip or oversimplify. It runs entirely in your browser; no inputs are stored or transmitted. The math is grounded in standard cycling physics and physiology models, and is suitable for hobbyist and intermediate training use. It is not a substitute for a coach, sports scientist, or professional bike-fit service.
This tool does not collect personal data. All inputs and results stay in your browser. We do not set first-party analytics cookies. This site may display ads served by Google AdSense; Google, as a third-party vendor, uses cookies to serve ads based on a user's prior visits to this site or other sites. Google's use of advertising cookies enables it and its partners to serve ads based on the visit to this site and/or other sites on the Internet. You can opt out of personalized advertising by visiting Google Ads Settings (google.com/settings/ads). Third-party vendors, including Google, use cookies to serve ads based on a user's prior visits to this site or other sites.
Children under 13 are not the intended audience.
This calculator is provided for general informational and educational purposes only. It is not medical, mechanical, or legal advice. Predicted values depend on inputs you supply and simplified physical models; real-world outcomes vary. Use at your own risk. Brand names are descriptive only and do not imply affiliation.